Quote:
Originally Posted by Phillyfanatic
Just wanted to say this is just what I was looking for. I'm currently in early stages of running my 32 team NFL (current teams, still need to finish 10 more teams) solitaire league. I currently use passing sticks with a mixture of dice to determine passes (dice for bullet passes) . But I really want to differentiate Peyton Manning from Max Hall. The percentage based passing seems to be the trick. Can you break down the process to us mathematically challenged coaches  |
My idea was roughly based on the following.
Originally, of the 36 possible dice rolls (remember, reading red dye then white, not totaling), there were 9 that would be bad (25%). Seven incompletions, two interceptions. This was based on a theory that I would hit 80% of passes with the TTQB. That has proven to be too high an estimate.
But the thought was, if 27-of-36 passes could be attempted, then 80% of those 27 were completed, then roughly 21 to 22 of those would be completed.
If you take 21/36 or 22/36 completing on total pass plays (not just the opportunities where the throw is actually made), you get completion percentages of 58.3% to 61.1% on average, which is a pretty fair number.
I've since removed one of the incompletions on the chart, becuase I was missing more passes than I figured I would. In theory, 2 of every 36 pass opportunities should be intercepted, though I'm still not sure if I should reduce that to 1 (by eliminating either 1-1 or 6-6 from the chart).
So for star quarterbacks, you could simply reduce the number of bad chart results, and give the quarterback more opportunities to throw.
All of this based, of course, on whether you are using the TTQB or pass placement. I'm not a fan of pass placement, so I use the quarterback.
Ed
