The way I see it working is to use a combination of passing simulation and dice rolls based on assigned QB ratings. For instance, let's look at some QBs currently playing in the NFL.
Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Romo, McNabb, Sanchez, Max Hall, Flaco, Kolb, Vince Young, Matt Moore, and Colt McCoy.
Now we assign ratings to them based on a college recruiting type ranking system. To make it simple, we can designate 4 stars, 3 stars, 2 stars and 1 star QBs.
So let's assign ratings to the guys I named.
4 stars: Manning, Brady, Brees,
3 stars: Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Mcnabb
2 stars: Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Vince Young
1 star: Max Hall, Matt Moore
4 stars have a 80 percent opportunity to make a throw 3 stars have a 70 percent opportunity, 2 stars have a 60 percent opportunity, and 1 stars have a 50 percent opportunity.
This is how I see it working. Roll a D-100 die. That is a die numbered:
10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 00 (00 representing 100). You can find them at any hobby shop that does miniature gaming.
Roll the die. If it comes up 10 -20, pass is incomplete. If you roll a 30-100, 4star QBs (Manning Brady, Brees) get an opportunity to make the throw. If you use passing simulation place the sticks down and simulate the catch. Receiver beats the DB to the target, pass complete. If he misses or its intercepted by DB that is the result of the play. Same if you choose to throw with a TDQ or TTQB.
If you roll a 40 - 100, 3 star QB's (Rodgers, Rivers, etc) get the opportunity to make the throw.
Roll a 50-100, 2 stars (Bradford, Sanchez) get the opportunity to make the throw.
Roll a 60- 100 a 1 star ( Max Hall) gets the opportunity to make the throw.
Based on my proposed system, Max Hall would have a 30 percent opportunity of making a throw versus Peyton Manning who would have an 80 percent opportunity. Remember, just because Manning or Brees has an opportunity to throw a pass 80% of the time does not mean they will complete it. This is the opportunity to get off the throw not completion percentage.
Think of it like the NBA lottery. Depending on dice rolls, Max Hall could go 22 for 30 on any given game day. Peyton could go 12 for 30. It just isn't as likely. More likely, Manning wil go 22 of 30 and Hall will go 12 for 30.
As I stated above, this system will simulate a top flight QB's ability to read a defense, accuracy, arm strength and ability to get off a timely throw as opposed to a less talented signal caller.
Now you can even simulate a Vince Young's skill set as a runner. Tweak his base so he can run like a good halfback or wide receiver. Run QB draws and keepers or let him scramble and terrorize a defense in his own way. However, since he is rated as a 2 star when it comes to passing, he won't be able to complete passes at the rate of a Peyton Manning.
Put a base on Manning that can maybe run just enough to let him move around a little but not outrun anyone. Make a rule that a QB cannot drop back past 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Because he has a slower base, Manning drops back slower from center so he will hang in the pocket longer giving his receivers longer to get open.
Now we have simulated a dramatic difference in two QBs when you play solitaire.
What do you think? I will play some games with this system and report back the stats.