uh? pats/colts....

[mark robin]

may be the game of the year so far........ congrats to Indy.

[Lindyhopper49]

ummm... that was quite an ending to a crazy game

I think Bill Belichick needs to have his head examined!? I mean I wanted the colts to win, but even I know that you should not risk giving the ball to Peyton manning inside the 30 with 2 mins left when you are up by 6!

that was a BONE HEAD call! but if he wanted to give one away to the Colts that is FINE BY ME!

[Hoop27]

Serves me right for turning off the game with 14 mins left. just saw the highlights.

How do you not punt that being in your own zone?

Umm ya first post. Hi!

[TVsCHACHI]

If the Pats convert the media calls him a risky genius. His ego got in the way and it cost the team big-time.

[Tomkat]

Bellicheat must have seen something in his video collection to make him try that.

[Michigan Joe]

Yeah...gutsy call that clearly back fired. From a mere probability standpoint I think it was the right move. If you are the NE and you get the 4th down conversion then you win- Period. Lets call that 4th and 2 a 50% probability of making it (probably even higher given there ability to shred the Colts all night). If you punt it away you have 0% chance of making the first down. Now lets look at the probability of Indy scoring a TD if they get the ball. They have all there time outs left. In addition, given that its the last possession they will use all 4 downs to convert and try to get into the end zone. Therefore the chances of a TD are higher than typical possessions. With just under two minutes to go the probability of scoring from the 30 yard line I would say is ~60%. A 35 yard net punt from NE would have given the Colts the ball on their own 35 yard line (65 yards to go for a TD). My estimate is that they had a 40% chance to score from that field position.

So lets sum up the Colts probabilities of winning to determine if NE made the right choice:

Decision 1) NE Go for it: Probability of Colts winning = probability of a stop * probability of a score from the 30 yard line. [0.5*0.6]= 30%

Decision 2) NE Punt: Probability of Colts winning = probability of a stop (100%)* probability of a score from 65 yards away (40%)= [1.0*0.40]= 40%

If you use this logic then it was the RIGHT CHOICE to go for it (by a slim margin). But...if you up the odds of NE making the 4th and 2 from 50 to 70% (which is probably how NE felt), the odds of the Colts winning the game was less than 20% [0.3*0.6=18%].

Punting the ball is over rated in my opinion, especially if you have a highly proficient offense or a very poor defense. Anyways, some food for thought.
Joe