Percentage based passing idea

[Iron Eagle]

The hardest thing to simulate in Soliataire is the play of a star quaterback. I can tweak a wide receiver or running back or even a defensive end to be great and stand out, but a QB...? They all play the same.

For instance, put a fast straight strong base on a WR and he can beat bump and run and terrorize a defensive secondary. Same thing with an RB, give him a sliver of daylight and tweak him to loop and catch the sideline and he's gone.

QB's depend on a human to make a pass with a TDQ or TTQB, or the WR to out run his opponent to the target if you use passing sticks. But wait a minute, what if we used a percentage based passing system based on a QB's lifetime passing rating (maybe adjusted to account for differences in eras)?

Do you think a system like this could work? Dice rolls based on a QB's real world stats.

[RooMorgans]

I use a percentage based system to shade the results such that completion percentages are more accurate and the possibility of interceptions is increased.

So, when I find an open receiver and stop the board, I roll two 6-sided dice of different colors (red, white).

If they come up the following:

R-W
1-2
1-3
2-1
2-2
5-6
6-5

... the pass is incomplete and the play is over. If it comes up snake eyes, the pass is intercepted by the nearest unengaged defender and can be run back. If it comes up 6-6, the pass is intercepted and the play is over.

Any other dice roll, then I throw the pass and proceed normally.

Between that, and the percentage of TTQB passes I hit, I've been very happy with the completion percentages I've been getting in my games.

Ed

[Iron Eagle]

Originally Posted by RooMorgans

I use a percentage based system to shade the results such that completion percentages are more accurate and the possibility of interceptions is increased.

So, when I find an open receiver and stop the board, I roll two 6-sided dice of different colors (red, white).

If they come up the following:

R-W
1-2
1-3
2-1
2-2
5-6
6-5

... the pass is incomplete and the play is over. If it comes up snake eyes, the pass is intercepted by the nearest unengaged defender and can be run back. If it comes up 6-6, the pass is intercepted and the play is over.

Any other dice roll, then I throw the pass and proceed normally.

Between that, and the percentage of TTQB passes I hit, I've been very happy with the completion percentages I've been getting in my games.

Ed

Ed, that sounds like a simple and efficient system. I may try to adapt that but weight the roll in favor of super star QBs vs. mediocre QBs. For instance, lets say I play with Joe Montana and the 49ers vs. Trent Dilfer and the Ravens. Let's say I use a ranking system from 1 to 10, 10 being the highest, an I look at their respective lifetime passer ratings and decide that Joe is a 10 and Trent is a 6. Then I can slant the odds in favor of Joe completing more passes than Trent.

Example: Using your system, for Trent (an average QB) if it comes up any of the following the pass is incomplete:

R-W
1-2
1-3
2-1
2-2
5-6
6-5

For Joe however, since he is more highly rated, he would only have an incompletion if the dice rolled:

R-W
1-2
1-3
2-1
2-2

Thus, Joe has a 33% higher chance of completing a pass than Trent because he is a superstar. Do you think this could possibly work?

[RooMorgans]

It certainly could, and I thought about that, as well.

For me, it would have entailed going in and checking completion and interception percentages for the various college quarterbacks in my league (I have a 14-team college league and a 4-team pro league). But it's tough with college with all the different teams and measuring level of competition, so I skipped it.

I went against it for my pro league, because I'm using 1973 rosters (the year I was born), so in some cases, I never saw the quarterbacks play.

Originally, I had one more dice rolls for incompletions, but then I was missing more passes than I expected on the TTQB throws, so I took one dice roll off. All things being equal, quarterbacks should complete 55-65% of their passes, which works for me.

Ed

[Phillyfanatic]

Just wanted to say this is just what I was looking for. I'm currently in early stages of running my 32 team NFL (current teams, still need to finish 10 more teams) solitaire league. I currently use passing sticks with a mixture of dice to determine passes (dice for bullet passes) . But I really want to differentiate Peyton Manning from Max Hall. The percentage based passing seems to be the trick. Can you break down the process to us mathematically challenged coaches

[mark robin]

that really a good way.

other simpler/faster(to me) ways, that i did as a kid....


1- star QBs get 2 attempts...doesnt work well as adults(i guess)

2-actually purchase/use several different TTQBs/TDQs and use the better ones to rep the better numbers real life QBs. you could even paint them up.

although, as i think about the dice idea, for solitaire play, i like it alot, but ME, i would want it even more simplified, maybe using only one die.

even number-complete.or heads
odd number incomplete.or tails
pick a number , example 1, if a 1 is rolled, roll another-even number=complete,odd number=interception....this way only one die is needed. ===u could also use this previous method with a coin-simple/fast

good stuff guys

[RavennaAl]

I used passing dice for over 30 years before switching to passing sticks. I like both systems, though I stayed with sticks for this years WMLMF season. One of the things I liked about the way I use dice is that the defense has to decide whether they are going to set up in a passing defense before the play starts. Setting up in a passing defense will open them up to the run, much like real football, but it also rewards the defense with higher % of incompletions and interceptions. I posted the whole system on the Miggle board several yearsago. Here is the link:

http://chatboard.miggle.com/forums_n...hlight=passing

If you want to see just how it worked out in real game stats, check out my first season and follow how the QB's did for the year here:

http://www.miniaturefootball.com/for...ad.php?t=11868

I know that the interception rate is probably higher than what would be normal, but I wanted a system that was simple to use with just 6 sided dice. I could have changed to 8 or 10 sided dice and tweaked the % to lower it some. As it was, I was pretty happy with it and it made the games enjoyable to watch.

What I can't explain is why some QB's had better luck than others even though I was rolling the same dice.

[Iron Eagle]

The way I see it working is to use a combination of passing simulation and dice rolls based on assigned QB ratings. For instance, let's look at some QBs currently playing in the NFL.

Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Romo, McNabb, Sanchez, Max Hall, Flaco, Kolb, Vince Young, Matt Moore, and Colt McCoy.

Now we assign ratings to them based on a college recruiting type ranking system. To make it simple, we can designate 4 stars, 3 stars, 2 stars and 1 star QBs.

So let's assign ratings to the guys I named.

4 stars: Manning, Brady, Brees,

3 stars: Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Romo, Mcnabb

2 stars: Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Vince Young

1 star: Max Hall, Matt Moore

4 stars have a 80 percent opportunity to make a throw 3 stars have a 70 percent opportunity, 2 stars have a 60 percent opportunity, and 1 stars have a 50 percent opportunity.

This is how I see it working. Roll a D-100 die. That is a die numbered:

10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 00 (00 representing 100). You can find them at any hobby shop that does miniature gaming.

Roll the die. If it comes up 10 -20, pass is incomplete. If you roll a 30-100, 4star QBs (Manning Brady, Brees) get an opportunity to make the throw. If you use passing simulation place the sticks down and simulate the catch. Receiver beats the DB to the target, pass complete. If he misses or its intercepted by DB that is the result of the play. Same if you choose to throw with a TDQ or TTQB.

If you roll a 40 - 100, 3 star QB's (Rodgers, Rivers, etc) get the opportunity to make the throw.

Roll a 50-100, 2 stars (Bradford, Sanchez) get the opportunity to make the throw.

Roll a 60- 100 a 1 star ( Max Hall) gets the opportunity to make the throw.

Based on my proposed system, Max Hall would have a 30 percent opportunity of making a throw versus Peyton Manning who would have an 80 percent opportunity. Remember, just because Manning or Brees has an opportunity to throw a pass 80% of the time does not mean they will complete it. This is the opportunity to get off the throw not completion percentage.

Think of it like the NBA lottery. Depending on dice rolls, Max Hall could go 22 for 30 on any given game day. Peyton could go 12 for 30. It just isn't as likely. More likely, Manning wil go 22 of 30 and Hall will go 12 for 30.

As I stated above, this system will simulate a top flight QB's ability to read a defense, accuracy, arm strength and ability to get off a timely throw as opposed to a less talented signal caller.

Now you can even simulate a Vince Young's skill set as a runner. Tweak his base so he can run like a good halfback or wide receiver. Run QB draws and keepers or let him scramble and terrorize a defense in his own way. However, since he is rated as a 2 star when it comes to passing, he won't be able to complete passes at the rate of a Peyton Manning.

Put a base on Manning that can maybe run just enough to let him move around a little but not outrun anyone. Make a rule that a QB cannot drop back past 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Because he has a slower base, Manning drops back slower from center so he will hang in the pocket longer giving his receivers longer to get open.

Now we have simulated a dramatic difference in two QBs when you play solitaire.

What do you think? I will play some games with this system and report back the stats.

[Phillyfanatic]

Iron Eagle

Just curious if you used this system in your solitaire play yet. I'm curious to see your stats. I plan on giving it a try when I'm off this vets day especially sone the base commander gave us an extra days off

[RooMorgans]

Originally Posted by Phillyfanatic

Just wanted to say this is just what I was looking for. I'm currently in early stages of running my 32 team NFL (current teams, still need to finish 10 more teams) solitaire league. I currently use passing sticks with a mixture of dice to determine passes (dice for bullet passes) . But I really want to differentiate Peyton Manning from Max Hall. The percentage based passing seems to be the trick. Can you break down the process to us mathematically challenged coaches

My idea was roughly based on the following.

Originally, of the 36 possible dice rolls (remember, reading red dye then white, not totaling), there were 9 that would be bad (25%). Seven incompletions, two interceptions. This was based on a theory that I would hit 80% of passes with the TTQB. That has proven to be too high an estimate.

But the thought was, if 27-of-36 passes could be attempted, then 80% of those 27 were completed, then roughly 21 to 22 of those would be completed.

If you take 21/36 or 22/36 completing on total pass plays (not just the opportunities where the throw is actually made), you get completion percentages of 58.3% to 61.1% on average, which is a pretty fair number.

I've since removed one of the incompletions on the chart, becuase I was missing more passes than I figured I would. In theory, 2 of every 36 pass opportunities should be intercepted, though I'm still not sure if I should reduce that to 1 (by eliminating either 1-1 or 6-6 from the chart).

So for star quarterbacks, you could simply reduce the number of bad chart results, and give the quarterback more opportunities to throw.

All of this based, of course, on whether you are using the TTQB or pass placement. I'm not a fan of pass placement, so I use the quarterback.

Ed