uh? pats/colts....

[Michigan Joe]

Yeah...gutsy call that clearly back fired. From a mere probability standpoint I think it was the right move. If you are the NE and you get the 4th down conversion then you win- Period. Lets call that 4th and 2 a 50% probability of making it (probably even higher given there ability to shred the Colts all night). If you punt it away you have 0% chance of making the first down. Now lets look at the probability of Indy scoring a TD if they get the ball. They have all there time outs left. In addition, given that its the last possession they will use all 4 downs to convert and try to get into the end zone. Therefore the chances of a TD are higher than typical possessions. With just under two minutes to go the probability of scoring from the 30 yard line I would say is ~60%. A 35 yard net punt from NE would have given the Colts the ball on their own 35 yard line (65 yards to go for a TD). My estimate is that they had a 40% chance to score from that field position.

So lets sum up the Colts probabilities of winning to determine if NE made the right choice:

Decision 1) NE Go for it: Probability of Colts winning = probability of a stop * probability of a score from the 30 yard line. [0.5*0.6]= 30%

Decision 2) NE Punt: Probability of Colts winning = probability of a stop (100%)* probability of a score from 65 yards away (40%)= [1.0*0.40]= 40%

If you use this logic then it was the RIGHT CHOICE to go for it (by a slim margin). But...if you up the odds of NE making the 4th and 2 from 50 to 70% (which is probably how NE felt), the odds of the Colts winning the game was less than 20% [0.3*0.6=18%].

Punting the ball is over rated in my opinion, especially if you have a highly proficient offense or a very poor defense. Anyways, some food for thought.
Joe